$MRNA Historical Base Rate
Moderna Inc.
What happened every other time MRNA made a similar move? Based on 30+ years of data across 5 market conditions.
Based on historically similar conditions using 5 market factors. Not a prediction — this is what happened in the past.
Customize conditions, toggle factors, and explore every matching day. Free — no account required.
What are the odds MRNA goes up tomorrow?
Bullish lean · Low confidence (8 matching days)
Across 8 historically similar trading days — where MRNA down 0.80% with matching conditions across 5 market factors — the stock closed higher 62.5% of the time over the next trading day. The median return was +0.59%, based on data spanning 2019 to 2026.
What are the chances MRNA rises this week?
Slight bearish lean · Low confidence (7 matching days)
Across 7 historically similar trading days — where MRNA down 0.80% with matching conditions across 5 market factors — the stock closed higher 42.9% of the time over the next 5 trading days. The median return was -2.31%, based on data spanning 2019 to 2025.
Will MRNA go up in the next month?
Strong bearish base rate · Low confidence (7 matching days)
Across 7 historically similar trading days — where MRNA down 0.80% with matching conditions across 5 market factors — the stock closed higher 28.6% of the time over the next 20 trading days. The median return was -9.58%, based on data spanning 2019 to 2025.
How MRNA Analysis Works
Detect Today's Conditions
TradeOdds automatically reads MRNA's current market state — price move, volume, RSI, VIX, trend structure, and 12 more conditions.
Find Matching Days
Every historical trading day for MRNA is scanned. Days with similar conditions are identified — typically hundreds of matches across 30+ years.
Check the Base Rate
See the win rate, median return, outcome distribution, and every matching day listed with exact dates and returns.
17 Market Conditions Analyzed
Each MRNA analysis checks these 18 conditions to find historically similar trading days.
Macro / Market Conditions
Market Trend
SPY position relative to key moving averages
VIX Level
CBOE Volatility Index current reading
VIX Move
Daily VIX percentage change
Month of Year
Calendar month seasonality
Macro Risk
Global risk state from yield curve and economic indicators
Asset-Specific Conditions
Price Move
Daily close-to-close percentage return
Move Intensity
Price move normalized by 14-day ATR
Relative Volume
Today's volume vs. 20-day average
RSI Zone
14-period RSI momentum classification
RSI Slope
3-day directional slope of RSI
Trend Structure
Price alignment with 9-day and 21-day EMA
Overnight Gap
Gap between today's open and yesterday's close
Analyst Trend
Net analyst sentiment over last 5 days
Earnings Performance
Latest earnings result vs. estimates
Earnings Proximity
Days until next earnings report
Price Streak
Consecutive up or down closing days
Volume Streak
Consecutive days above/below average volume
Regret a MRNA trade?
Enter your worst MRNA trade and see what the historical base rate said before you traded.
Backtest My Biggest LoserAbout This Data
Data Quality
- Institutional-grade OHLCV price data
- Adjusted for splits and dividends
- Updated daily after market close
- Coverage from 2019 for MRNA
Methodology
- Returns measured open-to-close (executable)
- Conditions bucketed quantitatively, not visually
- All matching days listed with exact dates
- No AI predictions — pure historical lookup
The numbers above reflect what happened historically under similar conditions. They are not predictions or recommendations. Past performance does not guarantee future results. See our legal disclaimer.