$SPY Stock Forecast & Price Prediction
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
A historical-probability forecast for SPY: what actually happened every other time SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust set up the way it does today — across 30+ years of data and 5 market conditions. Not a model prediction.
All 44 matching days (1996–2026) are marked — 31 closed higher 5 trading days later, 13 closed lower. Hover any dot to see that day and what SPY did next.
Matched on 5 factors: Move Intensity · VIX Level · Market Regime · RSI Zone · RSI Slope — change the factors and rerun it yourself →
These rates come from one specific setup — today's readings matched across 5 market conditions. That's this page's default; the dashboard lets you mix, add, or relax up to 17 factors, and the probabilities update live as the match changes. Not a prediction — this is what happened in the past.
SPY Price Target: Historical Range Projection
A traditional price target is one analyst's opinion. These ranges are measured: we take every historical day where SPY looked like it does today and apply what actually happened next to the latest close of $763.25. The median is the center of history, not a promise.
| Horizon | Worst 5% | 25th | Median | 75th | Best 5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next day | $751.57 | $761.80 | $766.68 | $769.89 | $775.84 |
| Next 5 days | $737.45 | $755.08 | $772.94 | $781.49 | $793.78 |
| Next 20 days | $739.21 | $773.86 | $785.23 | $806.68 | $819.43 |
Read it like this: across 44 matching days, SPY's next-20-day outcomes centered on $785.23, with the middle half of history landing between $773.86 and $806.68. Ranges shift daily as conditions change.
The October effect on SPY
Across 32 Octobers of history, SPY finished the month higher 66% of the time, with a median October return of +1.69%. Each year counts once — no overlapping windows inflating the sample.
SQL query This stat comes from a direct query against the full database — it isn't a point-and-click view in the analysis dashboard. Power User and Quant plans include the direct query API that produced it.
What TradeOdds reads in SPY today
Today SPY is down 1.1%. These are the exact readings the engine measured for SPY's latest session — the fingerprint it then hunted for across 30+ years of history. Every number on this page comes from days that matched this fingerprint.
Customize conditions, toggle factors, and explore every matching day. Free to try — no account required.
What are the odds SPY goes up tomorrow?
Bullish lean · Moderate confidence (44 matching days)
Across 44 historically similar trading days — where SPY down 1.11% with matching conditions across 5 market factors — the stock closed higher 65.9% of the time over the next trading day. The median return was +0.45%, based on data spanning 1996 to 2026.
Every bar is real matched days, not a model curve. The middle 90% of next-day outcomes ranged from -1.53% to +1.65%. Inspect each day →
What are the chances SPY rises this week?
Strong bullish base rate · Moderate confidence (44 matching days)
Across 44 historically similar trading days — where SPY down 1.11% with matching conditions across 5 market factors — the stock closed higher 70.5% of the time over the next 5 trading days. The median return was +1.27%, based on data spanning 1996 to 2026.
Every bar is real matched days, not a model curve. The middle 90% of 5-day outcomes ranged from -3.38% to +4.00%. Inspect each day →
Will SPY go up in the next month?
Strong bullish base rate · Moderate confidence (44 matching days)
Across 44 historically similar trading days — where SPY down 1.11% with matching conditions across 5 market factors — the stock closed higher 77.3% of the time over the next 20 trading days. The median return was +2.88%, based on data spanning 1996 to 2026.
Every bar is real matched days, not a model curve. The middle 90% of 20-day outcomes ranged from -3.15% to +7.36%. Inspect each day →
The receipts: SPY's matching days
The 44 matching days behind the 5-day numbers are real, dated trading sessions — here are the 25 most recent. Each row is a day SPY looked like it does today, and what actually happened next.
| Date | Setup move | VIX | Next 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 | -1.00% | 21.8 | -0.03% |
| Nov 17, 2025 | -0.75% | 22.4 | +1.00% |
| Mar 6, 2025 | -1.75% | 24.9 | -3.41% |
| Mar 4, 2025 | -1.00% | 23.5 | -3.60% |
| Sep 6, 2024 | -1.50% | 22.4 | +3.19% |
| Oct 20, 2023 | -1.00% | 21.7 | -2.13% |
| Feb 3, 2022 | -2.25% | 24.4 | +0.66% |
| Oct 4, 2021 | -1.25% | 23.0 | +1.04% |
| Sep 30, 2021 | -1.00% | 23.1 | +1.78% |
| Oct 8, 2019 | -1.50% | 20.3 | +2.79% |
| Aug 12, 2019 | -1.00% | 21.1 | +1.60% |
| Oct 18, 2018 | -1.25% | 20.1 | -2.55% |
| Apr 6, 2018 | -2.00% | 21.5 | +1.45% |
| Apr 2, 2018 | -2.00% | 23.6 | +0.82% |
| Mar 1, 2018 | -1.25% | 22.5 | +3.12% |
| Jan 30, 2015 | -1.25% | 21.0 | +2.75% |
| Jan 28, 2015 | -1.25% | 20.4 | +1.84% |
| Jan 6, 2015 | -0.75% | 21.1 | +0.33% |
| Oct 10, 2014 | -1.00% | 21.2 | -1.04% |
| Oct 8, 2013 | -1.00% | 20.3 | +2.35% |
| Jun 24, 2013 | -1.25% | 20.1 | +1.82% |
| Dec 28, 2012 | -1.00% | 22.7 | +4.52% |
| Jun 11, 2012 | -1.25% | 23.6 | +2.51% |
| May 30, 2012 | -1.25% | 24.1 | +0.19% |
| May 14, 2012 | -1.00% | 21.9 | -1.53% |
Setup move is the matched day's approximate price change; Next 5 days is the measured open-to-close outcome that followed. All 44 days, sortable, in the dashboard →
How SPY Analysis Works
Detect Today's Conditions
TradeOdds automatically reads SPY's current market state — price move, volume, RSI, VIX, trend structure, and 12 more conditions.
Find Matching Days
Every historical trading day for SPY is scanned. Days with similar conditions are identified — typically hundreds of matches across 30+ years.
Check the Base Rate
See the win rate, median return, outcome distribution, and every matching day listed with exact dates and returns.
SPY Analysis: 17 Market Conditions Checked
Each SPY analysis checks these 17 conditions to find historically similar trading days.
Macro / Market Conditions
Market Trend
SPY position relative to key moving averages
VIX Level
CBOE Volatility Index current reading
VIX Move
Daily VIX percentage change
Month of Year
Calendar month seasonality
Macro Risk
Global risk state from yield curve and economic indicators
Asset-Specific Conditions
Price Move
Daily close-to-close percentage return
Move Intensity
Price move normalized by 14-day ATR
Relative Volume
Today's volume vs. 20-day average
RSI Zone
14-period RSI momentum classification
RSI Slope
3-day directional slope of RSI
Trend Structure
Price alignment with 9-day and 21-day EMA
Overnight Gap
Gap between today's open and yesterday's close
Analyst Trend
Net analyst sentiment over last 5 days
Earnings Performance
Latest earnings result vs. estimates
Earnings Proximity
Days until next earnings report
Price Streak
Consecutive up or down closing days
Volume Streak
Consecutive days above/below average volume
Regret a SPY trade? Test it right here.
Pick any past SPY trade date and see what the historical base rate said before that trade — live, free, no account.
About This Data
Data Quality
- Institutional-grade OHLCV price data
- Adjusted for splits and dividends
- Updated daily after market close
- Coverage from 1996 for SPY
Methodology
- Returns measured open-to-close (executable)
- Conditions bucketed quantitatively, not visually
- All matching days listed with exact dates
- No AI predictions — pure historical lookup
Every stat on this page is a query against that dataset — the identical data the TradeOdds analysis dashboard runs live. Open it with this page's exact setup pre-loaded to see each matching day, date by date.
The numbers above reflect what happened historically under similar conditions. They are not predictions or recommendations. Past performance does not guarantee future results. See our legal disclaimer.