Macro Condition 1 of 17 market conditions

Macro Risk

Global risk state from yield curve and economic indicators

What Macro Risk Measures

Captures the broad macroeconomic risk environment. Currently tracks yield curve inversion (a historically reliable recession signal) and will expand to include high-volatility economic events.

Buckets

TradeOdds classifies each trading day into one of these buckets for Macro Risk. When you run an analysis, matching days must fall in the same bucket (or adjacent buckets if tolerance is set above 0).

Clear Skies Risk Off (inverted yield curve) High Volatility Event

How It's Calculated

Yield curve inversion detected from Treasury spread data. Clear Skies = normal curve. Risk Off = inverted. High Volatility Event = major economic releases (coming soon).

How to Use Macro Risk in TradeOdds

When you run an analysis on TradeOdds, Macro Risk is one of 17 conditions that can be active. If Macro Risk is toggled on, only historical days where Macro Risk was in the same bucket as today are included in the match.

For example, if today's Macro Risk reading puts it in the "Clear Skies" bucket, TradeOdds finds all historical days for that stock where Macro Risk was also classified as "Clear Skies" — then shows you what happened next.

Adding more conditions narrows the match (fewer but more specific historical days). Removing conditions widens the match (more historical days but less specific). The right balance depends on whether you want statistical significance (more matches) or precision (fewer but more similar matches).

See Macro Risk in Action

Run a free analysis on any stock and see how Macro Risk affects the historical base rate.

Run Free Analysis

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