Market Trend
SPY position relative to key moving averages
What Market Trend Measures
Measures where the S&P 500 (SPY) sits relative to its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages. This establishes the broad market regime — are we in a bull market, a correction within a bull market, a bear market rally, or a full bear market?
Buckets
TradeOdds classifies each trading day into one of these buckets for Market Trend. When you run an analysis, matching days must fall in the same bucket (or adjacent buckets if tolerance is set above 0).
How It's Calculated
SPY closing price compared against 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. Full Bull: above both. Bull Correction: above 200 but below 50. Bear Rally: below 200 but above 50. Full Bear: below both.
How to Use Market Trend in TradeOdds
When you run an analysis on TradeOdds, Market Trend is one of 17 conditions that can be active. If Market Trend is toggled on, only historical days where Market Trend was in the same bucket as today are included in the match.
For example, if today's Market Trend reading puts it in the "Full Bull" bucket, TradeOdds finds all historical days for that stock where Market Trend was also classified as "Full Bull" — then shows you what happened next.
Adding more conditions narrows the match (fewer but more specific historical days). Removing conditions widens the match (more historical days but less specific). The right balance depends on whether you want statistical significance (more matches) or precision (fewer but more similar matches).
See Market Trend in Action
Run a free analysis on any stock and see how Market Trend affects the historical base rate.
Run Free AnalysisNo account required. 5 free analyses per day.
All 17 Market Conditions
VIX Level
CBOE Volatility Index current reading
VIX Move
Daily VIX percentage change
Month of Year
Calendar month seasonality
Macro Risk
Global risk state from yield curve and economic indicators
Price Move
Daily close-to-close percentage return
Move Intensity
Price move normalized by 14-day ATR
Relative Volume
Today's volume vs. 20-day average
RSI Zone
14-period RSI momentum classification
RSI Slope
3-day directional slope of RSI
Trend Structure
Price alignment with 9-day and 21-day EMA
Overnight Gap
Gap between today's open and yesterday's close
Analyst Trend
Net analyst sentiment over last 5 days
Earnings Performance
Latest earnings result vs. estimates
Earnings Proximity
Days until next earnings report
Price Streak
Consecutive up or down closing days
Volume Streak
Consecutive days above/below average volume