The trade that hurt

What would the base rate have told you?

Enter your worst recent trade and see what 30 years of historical data said that day — before you traded. Scroll down to run it.

How It Works

1

Enter Your Trade

Pick the ticker, the date you entered, and whether you went long or short.

2

See the Conditions

TradeOdds shows the exact market conditions on that day — VIX, RSI, volume, trend, and more — and matches them across history.

3

Check the Base Rate

See what happened historically after similar conditions. Would the base rate have supported your trade — or warned you away?

Why Backtest Your Worst Trades?

Every trader has a trade they wish they could take back. The stock that gapped down the day after you bought it. The breakout that reversed immediately. The position that looked perfect — until it wasn't.

Backtest My Biggest Loser doesn't just show you what went wrong — it shows you whether the historical base rate was on your side that day. If 70% of similar historical days went against your direction, the data was already there. If the base rate was 50/50, you took a coin-flip trade.

This isn't about guilt. It's about calibration. The best traders aren't right more often — they know when the base rate is with them and size accordingly.

Run a Backtest