$AA Stock Forecast & Price Prediction
Alcoa Corporation
A historical-probability forecast for AA: what actually happened every other time Alcoa Corporation set up the way it does today — across 30+ years of data and 5 market conditions. Not a model prediction.
All 18 matching days (2018–2026) are marked — 10 closed higher 5 trading days later, 8 closed lower. Hover any dot to see that day and what AA did next.
Matched on 5 factors: Move Intensity · VIX Level · Market Regime · RSI Zone · RSI Slope — change the factors and rerun it yourself →
These rates come from one specific setup — today's readings matched across 5 market conditions. That's this page's default; the dashboard lets you mix, add, or relax up to 17 factors, and the probabilities update live as the match changes. Not a prediction — this is what happened in the past.
AA earnings are within 5 trading days.
Earnings weeks behave differently: across 120 historical AA days within 5 days of earnings, the 5-day win rate ran 48.3% vs 50.8% the rest of the time. The rates on this page blend both — factor the event in before acting on them.
The near-vs-away split is a direct database query (not a dashboard view) — the query API on Power User plans runs comparisons like this. The dashboard's Earnings Proximity factor toggle gets you the near-earnings side free.
AA Price Target: Historical Range Projection
A traditional price target is one analyst's opinion. These ranges are measured: we take every historical day where AA looked like it does today and apply what actually happened next to the latest close of $41.67. The median is the center of history, not a promise.
| Horizon | Worst 5% | 25th | Median | 75th | Best 5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next day | $39.74 | $41.24 | $41.67 | $42.35 | $43.35 |
| Next 5 days | $37.31 | $39.63 | $42.54 | $43.60 | $45.00 |
| Next 20 days | $36.11 | $38.99 | $40.90 | $44.21 | $48.55 |
Read it like this: across 18 matching days, AA's next-20-day outcomes centered on $40.90, with the middle half of history landing between $38.99 and $44.21. Ranges shift daily as conditions change.
The October effect on AA
Across 10 Octobers of history, AA finished the month higher 60% of the time, with a median October return of +1.44%. Each year counts once — no overlapping windows inflating the sample.
SQL query This stat comes from a direct query against the full database — it isn't a point-and-click view in the analysis dashboard. Power User and Quant plans include the direct query API that produced it.
What TradeOdds reads in AA today
Today AA is up 0.5%. These are the exact readings the engine measured for AA's latest session — the fingerprint it then hunted for across 30+ years of history. Every number on this page comes from days that matched this fingerprint.
Customize conditions, toggle factors, and explore every matching day. Free to try — no account required.
What are the odds AA goes up tomorrow?
Neutral · Low confidence (18 matching days)
Across 18 historically similar trading days — where AA up 0.53% with matching conditions across 5 market factors — the stock closed higher 50.0% of the time over the next trading day. The median return was -0.01%, based on data spanning 2018 to 2026.
Only 18 historical days matched this exact setup. An exact match on every factor keeps the comparison honest but shrinks the sample — and rates from small samples carry wider uncertainty. Relax or swap factors in the dashboard to widen the net and see how stable the rate is.
Every bar is real matched days, not a model curve. The middle 90% of next-day outcomes ranged from -4.62% to +4.03%. Inspect each day →
What are the chances AA rises this week?
Slight bullish lean · Low confidence (18 matching days)
Across 18 historically similar trading days — where AA up 0.53% with matching conditions across 5 market factors — the stock closed higher 55.6% of the time over the next 5 trading days. The median return was +2.08%, based on data spanning 2018 to 2026.
Only 18 historical days matched this exact setup. An exact match on every factor keeps the comparison honest but shrinks the sample — and rates from small samples carry wider uncertainty. Relax or swap factors in the dashboard to widen the net and see how stable the rate is.
Every bar is real matched days, not a model curve. The middle 90% of 5-day outcomes ranged from -10.47% to +8.00%. Inspect each day →
Will AA go up in the next month?
Bearish lean · Low confidence (18 matching days)
Across 18 historically similar trading days — where AA up 0.53% with matching conditions across 5 market factors — the stock closed higher 38.9% of the time over the next 20 trading days. The median return was -1.84%, based on data spanning 2018 to 2026.
Only 18 historical days matched this exact setup. An exact match on every factor keeps the comparison honest but shrinks the sample — and rates from small samples carry wider uncertainty. Relax or swap factors in the dashboard to widen the net and see how stable the rate is.
Every bar is real matched days, not a model curve. The middle 90% of 20-day outcomes ranged from -13.35% to +16.52%. Inspect each day →
The receipts: AA's matching days
The 18 matching days behind the 5-day numbers are real, dated trading sessions — here are the 18 most recent. Each row is a day AA looked like it does today, and what actually happened next.
| Date | Setup move | VIX | Next 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28, 2026 | +0.75% | 18.2 | +4.41% |
| Jan 7, 2025 | -0.50% | 17.8 | +6.74% |
| Jan 2, 2025 | +0.75% | 17.9 | -5.37% |
| Oct 16, 2023 | +1.00% | 17.2 | -11.00% |
| Oct 9, 2023 | +0.50% | 17.7 | -3.02% |
| Aug 28, 2023 | +1.00% | 15.1 | +6.13% |
| Aug 23, 2023 | +0.25% | 16.0 | +4.07% |
| Aug 22, 2023 | +0.75% | 17.0 | +2.90% |
| Mar 28, 2023 | +1.25% | 20.0 | -2.33% |
| Aug 30, 2019 | +1.00% | 19.0 | +15.14% |
| Aug 21, 2019 | +1.00% | 15.8 | -7.83% |
| Aug 20, 2019 | +0.50% | 17.5 | -10.38% |
| Jun 6, 2019 | +1.00% | 15.9 | +1.26% |
| May 15, 2019 | +0.25% | 16.4 | -3.50% |
| Jun 27, 2018 | +0.00% | 17.9 | +3.66% |
| Mar 5, 2018 | +0.25% | 18.7 | +4.69% |
| Mar 2, 2018 | +1.25% | 19.6 | +5.93% |
| Feb 22, 2018 | +1.00% | 18.7 | -6.21% |
Setup move is the matched day's approximate price change; Next 5 days is the measured open-to-close outcome that followed. All 18 days, sortable, in the dashboard →
How AA Analysis Works
Detect Today's Conditions
TradeOdds automatically reads AA's current market state — price move, volume, RSI, VIX, trend structure, and 12 more conditions.
Find Matching Days
Every historical trading day for AA is scanned. Days with similar conditions are identified — typically hundreds of matches across 30+ years.
Check the Base Rate
See the win rate, median return, outcome distribution, and every matching day listed with exact dates and returns.
AA Analysis: 17 Market Conditions Checked
Each AA analysis checks these 17 conditions to find historically similar trading days.
Macro / Market Conditions
Market Trend
SPY position relative to key moving averages
VIX Level
CBOE Volatility Index current reading
VIX Move
Daily VIX percentage change
Month of Year
Calendar month seasonality
Macro Risk
Global risk state from yield curve and economic indicators
Asset-Specific Conditions
Price Move
Daily close-to-close percentage return
Move Intensity
Price move normalized by 14-day ATR
Relative Volume
Today's volume vs. 20-day average
RSI Zone
14-period RSI momentum classification
RSI Slope
3-day directional slope of RSI
Trend Structure
Price alignment with 9-day and 21-day EMA
Overnight Gap
Gap between today's open and yesterday's close
Analyst Trend
Net analyst sentiment over last 5 days
Earnings Performance
Latest earnings result vs. estimates
Earnings Proximity
Days until next earnings report
Price Streak
Consecutive up or down closing days
Volume Streak
Consecutive days above/below average volume
Regret a AA trade? Test it right here.
Pick any past AA trade date and see what the historical base rate said before that trade — live, free, no account.
About This Data
Data Quality
- Institutional-grade OHLCV price data
- Adjusted for splits and dividends
- Updated daily after market close
- Coverage from 2018 for AA
Methodology
- Returns measured open-to-close (executable)
- Conditions bucketed quantitatively, not visually
- All matching days listed with exact dates
- No AI predictions — pure historical lookup
Every stat on this page is a query against that dataset — the identical data the TradeOdds analysis dashboard runs live. Open it with this page's exact setup pre-loaded to see each matching day, date by date.
The numbers above reflect what happened historically under similar conditions. They are not predictions or recommendations. Past performance does not guarantee future results. See our legal disclaimer.
Setting up like AA today
Other tracked symbols whose current readings overlap AA's on 3+ factors right now — same fingerprint family, different stock. This cross-symbol view is what Factor Match does across 2,000+ assets on every condition — 5 free scans, no account needed.