$SMH Stock Forecast & Price Prediction
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
A historical-probability forecast for SMH: what actually happened every other time VanEck Semiconductor ETF set up the way it does today — across 30+ years of data and 5 market conditions. Not a model prediction.
All 41 matching days (2000–2026) are marked — 23 closed higher 5 trading days later, 18 closed lower. Hover any dot to see that day and what SMH did next.
Matched on 5 factors: Move Intensity · VIX Level · Market Regime · RSI Zone · RSI Slope — change the factors and rerun it yourself →
Based on historically similar conditions using 5 market factors. Not a prediction — this is what happened in the past.
SMH Price Target: Historical Range Projection
A traditional price target is one analyst's opinion. These ranges are measured: we take every historical day where SMH looked like it does today and apply what actually happened next to the latest close of $548.55. The median is the center of history, not a promise.
| Horizon | Worst 5% | 25th | Median | 75th | Best 5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next day | $532.26 | $540.21 | $548.44 | $551.62 | $558.70 |
| Next 5 days | $523.15 | $538.57 | $552.44 | $563.09 | $579.71 |
| Next 20 days | $506.31 | $541.80 | $561.06 | $578.17 | $608.51 |
Read it like this: across 40 matching days, SMH's next-20-day outcomes centered on $561.06, with the middle half of history landing between $541.80 and $578.17. Ranges shift daily as conditions change.
How this SMH forecast is calculated
Today SMH is down 2.3%. We find every historical day where SMH matched today's reading across these 5 market factors, then measure exactly what happened next — by day, week, and month.
Customize conditions, toggle factors, and explore every matching day. Free to try — no account required.
What are the odds SMH goes up tomorrow?
Neutral · Moderate confidence (42 matching days)
Across 42 historically similar trading days — where SMH down 2.25% with matching conditions across 5 market factors — the stock closed higher 47.6% of the time over the next trading day. The median return was -0.02%, based on data spanning 2000 to 2026.
What are the chances SMH rises this week?
Slight bullish lean · Moderate confidence (41 matching days)
Across 41 historically similar trading days — where SMH down 2.25% with matching conditions across 5 market factors — the stock closed higher 56.1% of the time over the next 5 trading days. The median return was +0.71%, based on data spanning 2000 to 2026.
Will SMH go up in the next month?
Bullish lean · Moderate confidence (40 matching days)
Across 40 historically similar trading days — where SMH down 2.25% with matching conditions across 5 market factors — the stock closed higher 67.5% of the time over the next 20 trading days. The median return was +2.28%, based on data spanning 2000 to 2024.
How SMH Analysis Works
Detect Today's Conditions
TradeOdds automatically reads SMH's current market state — price move, volume, RSI, VIX, trend structure, and 12 more conditions.
Find Matching Days
Every historical trading day for SMH is scanned. Days with similar conditions are identified — typically hundreds of matches across 30+ years.
Check the Base Rate
See the win rate, median return, outcome distribution, and every matching day listed with exact dates and returns.
SMH Analysis: 17 Market Conditions Checked
Each SMH analysis checks these 17 conditions to find historically similar trading days.
Macro / Market Conditions
Market Trend
SPY position relative to key moving averages
VIX Level
CBOE Volatility Index current reading
VIX Move
Daily VIX percentage change
Month of Year
Calendar month seasonality
Macro Risk
Global risk state from yield curve and economic indicators
Asset-Specific Conditions
Price Move
Daily close-to-close percentage return
Move Intensity
Price move normalized by 14-day ATR
Relative Volume
Today's volume vs. 20-day average
RSI Zone
14-period RSI momentum classification
RSI Slope
3-day directional slope of RSI
Trend Structure
Price alignment with 9-day and 21-day EMA
Overnight Gap
Gap between today's open and yesterday's close
Analyst Trend
Net analyst sentiment over last 5 days
Earnings Performance
Latest earnings result vs. estimates
Earnings Proximity
Days until next earnings report
Price Streak
Consecutive up or down closing days
Volume Streak
Consecutive days above/below average volume
Regret a SMH trade?
Enter your worst SMH trade and see what the historical base rate said before you traded.
Backtest My Biggest LoserAbout This Data
Data Quality
- Institutional-grade OHLCV price data
- Adjusted for splits and dividends
- Updated daily after market close
- Coverage from 2000 for SMH
Methodology
- Returns measured open-to-close (executable)
- Conditions bucketed quantitatively, not visually
- All matching days listed with exact dates
- No AI predictions — pure historical lookup
Every stat on this page is a query against that dataset — the identical data the TradeOdds analysis dashboard runs live. Open it with this page's exact setup pre-loaded to see each matching day, date by date.
The numbers above reflect what happened historically under similar conditions. They are not predictions or recommendations. Past performance does not guarantee future results. See our legal disclaimer.