$SMH Stock Forecast & Price Prediction
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
A historical-probability forecast for SMH: what actually happened every other time VanEck Semiconductor ETF set up the way it does today — across 30+ years of data and 5 market conditions. Not a model prediction.
All 13 matching days (2004–2026) are marked — 7 closed higher 5 trading days later, 6 closed lower. Hover any dot to see that day and what SMH did next.
Matched on 5 factors: Move Intensity · VIX Level · Market Regime · RSI Zone · RSI Slope — change the factors and rerun it yourself →
These rates come from one specific setup — today's readings matched across 5 market conditions. That's this page's default; the dashboard lets you mix, add, or relax up to 17 factors, and the probabilities update live as the match changes. Not a prediction — this is what happened in the past.
SMH Price Target: Historical Range Projection
A traditional price target is one analyst's opinion. These ranges are measured: we take every historical day where SMH looked like it does today and apply what actually happened next to the latest close of $541.62. The median is the center of history, not a promise.
| Horizon | Worst 5% | 25th | Median | 75th | Best 5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next day | $525.70 | $530.84 | $539.94 | $546.98 | $551.96 |
| Next 5 days | $519.79 | $531.44 | $542.92 | $545.30 | $559.49 |
| Next 20 days | $508.58 | $531.38 | $550.67 | $568.97 | $591.02 |
Read it like this: across 13 matching days, SMH's next-20-day outcomes centered on $550.67, with the middle half of history landing between $531.38 and $568.97. Ranges shift daily as conditions change.
The October effect on SMH
Across 27 Octobers of history, SMH finished the month higher 52% of the time, with a median October return of +1.17%. Each year counts once — no overlapping windows inflating the sample.
SQL query This stat comes from a direct query against the full database — it isn't a point-and-click view in the analysis dashboard. Power User and Quant plans include the direct query API that produced it.
What TradeOdds reads in SMH today
Today SMH is up 2.7%. These are the exact readings the engine measured for SMH's latest session — the fingerprint it then hunted for across 30+ years of history. Every number on this page comes from days that matched this fingerprint.
Customize conditions, toggle factors, and explore every matching day. Free to try — no account required.
What are the odds SMH goes up tomorrow?
Bearish lean · Low confidence (13 matching days)
Across 13 historically similar trading days — where SMH up 2.74% with matching conditions across 5 market factors — the stock closed higher 38.5% of the time over the next trading day. The median return was -0.31%, based on data spanning 2004 to 2026.
Only 13 historical days matched this exact setup. An exact match on every factor keeps the comparison honest but shrinks the sample — and rates from small samples carry wider uncertainty. Relax or swap factors in the dashboard to widen the net and see how stable the rate is.
Every bar is real matched days, not a model curve. The middle 90% of next-day outcomes ranged from -2.94% to +1.91%. Inspect each day →
What are the chances SMH rises this week?
Neutral · Low confidence (13 matching days)
Across 13 historically similar trading days — where SMH up 2.74% with matching conditions across 5 market factors — the stock closed higher 53.8% of the time over the next 5 trading days. The median return was +0.24%, based on data spanning 2004 to 2026.
Only 13 historical days matched this exact setup. An exact match on every factor keeps the comparison honest but shrinks the sample — and rates from small samples carry wider uncertainty. Relax or swap factors in the dashboard to widen the net and see how stable the rate is.
Every bar is real matched days, not a model curve. The middle 90% of 5-day outcomes ranged from -4.03% to +3.30%. Inspect each day →
Will SMH go up in the next month?
Bullish lean · Low confidence (13 matching days)
Across 13 historically similar trading days — where SMH up 2.74% with matching conditions across 5 market factors — the stock closed higher 61.5% of the time over the next 20 trading days. The median return was +1.67%, based on data spanning 2004 to 2026.
Only 13 historical days matched this exact setup. An exact match on every factor keeps the comparison honest but shrinks the sample — and rates from small samples carry wider uncertainty. Relax or swap factors in the dashboard to widen the net and see how stable the rate is.
Every bar is real matched days, not a model curve. The middle 90% of 20-day outcomes ranged from -6.10% to +9.12%. Inspect each day →
The receipts: SMH's matching days
The 13 matching days behind the 5-day numbers are real, dated trading sessions — here are the 13 most recent. Each row is a day SMH looked like it does today, and what actually happened next.
| Date | Setup move | VIX | Next 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | +7.00% | 17.1 | +2.51% |
| Apr 23, 2024 | +2.50% | 15.7 | +0.68% |
| May 14, 2019 | +2.75% | 18.1 | -3.02% |
| Apr 26, 2018 | +2.25% | 16.2 | -1.84% |
| Mar 29, 2018 | +2.25% | 20.0 | -3.84% |
| Jul 10, 2015 | +2.00% | 16.8 | +0.46% |
| Jan 7, 2015 | +1.50% | 19.3 | -1.30% |
| Feb 6, 2014 | +1.50% | 17.2 | +4.48% |
| Jun 25, 2013 | +2.25% | 18.5 | +0.43% |
| Jun 21, 2011 | +2.25% | 18.9 | +0.89% |
| Jun 14, 2011 | +2.00% | 18.3 | +0.24% |
| Jul 29, 2004 | +3.50% | 15.7 | -1.88% |
| Mar 12, 2004 | +2.25% | 18.3 | -4.32% |
Setup move is the matched day's approximate price change; Next 5 days is the measured open-to-close outcome that followed. All 13 days, sortable, in the dashboard →
How SMH Analysis Works
Detect Today's Conditions
TradeOdds automatically reads SMH's current market state — price move, volume, RSI, VIX, trend structure, and 12 more conditions.
Find Matching Days
Every historical trading day for SMH is scanned. Days with similar conditions are identified — typically hundreds of matches across 30+ years.
Check the Base Rate
See the win rate, median return, outcome distribution, and every matching day listed with exact dates and returns.
SMH Analysis: 17 Market Conditions Checked
Each SMH analysis checks these 17 conditions to find historically similar trading days.
Macro / Market Conditions
Market Trend
SPY position relative to key moving averages
VIX Level
CBOE Volatility Index current reading
VIX Move
Daily VIX percentage change
Month of Year
Calendar month seasonality
Macro Risk
Global risk state from yield curve and economic indicators
Asset-Specific Conditions
Price Move
Daily close-to-close percentage return
Move Intensity
Price move normalized by 14-day ATR
Relative Volume
Today's volume vs. 20-day average
RSI Zone
14-period RSI momentum classification
RSI Slope
3-day directional slope of RSI
Trend Structure
Price alignment with 9-day and 21-day EMA
Overnight Gap
Gap between today's open and yesterday's close
Analyst Trend
Net analyst sentiment over last 5 days
Earnings Performance
Latest earnings result vs. estimates
Earnings Proximity
Days until next earnings report
Price Streak
Consecutive up or down closing days
Volume Streak
Consecutive days above/below average volume
Regret a SMH trade? Test it right here.
Pick any past SMH trade date and see what the historical base rate said before that trade — live, free, no account.
About This Data
Data Quality
- Institutional-grade OHLCV price data
- Adjusted for splits and dividends
- Updated daily after market close
- Coverage from 2004 for SMH
Methodology
- Returns measured open-to-close (executable)
- Conditions bucketed quantitatively, not visually
- All matching days listed with exact dates
- No AI predictions — pure historical lookup
Every stat on this page is a query against that dataset — the identical data the TradeOdds analysis dashboard runs live. Open it with this page's exact setup pre-loaded to see each matching day, date by date.
The numbers above reflect what happened historically under similar conditions. They are not predictions or recommendations. Past performance does not guarantee future results. See our legal disclaimer.