Stock Base Rate Calculator
Enter any stock and see what happened every other time it made a similar move. 2,000+ assets, 30+ years of data, 17 market conditions — checked in seconds.
Check a Stock's Base Rate5 free analyses per day. No signup needed.
What the Calculator Shows You
Win Rate
How often the stock closed higher after similar conditions. Based on every matching day in 30+ years of history.
Median Return
The middle return across all matching days. Not the average (which outliers skew), but the median — what you'd most typically expect.
Outcome Distribution
The full range of outcomes from worst to best. See the spread, not just the headline number.
Every Matching Day
Every historical day that matched is listed with exact dates and returns. Verify any number yourself.
17 Market Conditions Checked Automatically
The base rate calculator doesn't just match on price move. It checks 17 conditions including VIX level, RSI momentum, volume, trend structure, earnings proximity, and more. Toggle any condition on or off to see how it changes the historical outcome.
See all 17 conditions explained →Frequently Asked Questions
What is a stock base rate?
A stock base rate is the historical frequency of a particular outcome after similar market conditions. For example, if a stock dropped 2% with high VIX and the base rate shows "65% closed higher within 5 days," that means across all similar historical days, 65% of the time the stock recovered. It's the historical record, not a prediction.
How is a base rate different from a stock prediction?
A prediction uses a model to guess what will happen. A base rate shows what actually happened historically under similar conditions. TradeOdds doesn't predict — it looks up the historical record. "65% closed higher" means that's what happened in the past, not what will happen in the future.
Is the stock base rate calculator free?
Yes. TradeOdds offers 5 free analyses per day with no account required. All 2,000+ assets, all 17 market conditions, and 30+ years of data are available to free users.
What stocks can I check?
TradeOdds covers 2,000+ assets including major stocks (AAPL, TSLA, NVDA, AMZN, META, MSFT, GOOG), ETFs (SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM), and cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum). Data typically starts from 1993-1995 for major equities.